Estonia
Academic perspectives on migration, demographic change and social cohesion, viewed through Estonia’s national experience.
Migration and demographic change in Estonia
In 2025, Estonia had a population of 1.34 million inhabitants, almost 250,000 fewer than in the year of independence, 1991 (1.58 million).
This decline can be primarily attributed to emigration, predominantly to Western Europe. But the balance between deaths and births also plays an important role. The total fertility rate of the country fell from 1.58 in 2015 to 1.37 in 2025.
Estonia’s population is expected to decline from 1,374,687 in 2024 to approximately 1,355,000 by 2030 and further to 1,318,000 by 2050. Current net migration won’t be sufficient to offset the negative natural increase.
In 2025, of the immigrants, around 4,000 (35%) were citizens of Ukraine, while other significant groups included returning Estonians (5,200), Russians (600), Finns (505), and Latvians (477).
As of 1 January 2024, there were approximately 218,000 third-country nationals living in Estonia, representing 15.9% of the total population, one of the highest shares in the EU, and another 26 400 EU citizens (1.9%) living in Estonia at the time.
One year later, as of 1 January 2025, by ethnic nationality, 934,725 residents were Estonians, 285,819 were Russians, and 143,295 were of other ethnic nationalities.
In 2024, the number of first asylum applicants decreased by 67%, to reach around 1 300. The majority of applicants came from Ukraine (1 200). Of the 1 410 decisions taken in 2024, 96% were positive.
Interviews from Estonia
These interviews explore perceptions of migration, the institutional and societal logic shaping public debate, and recommendations based on Estonia’s national experience.
Sources and further information
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01
Total population statistics.
United Nations Population Data Portal -
02
Fertility rate statistics.
United Nations Population Data Portal -
03
Population projection details.
Statistics Estonia – New population projection
Statistics Estonia – Population projection -
04
Migration statistics.
Statistics Estonia – Estonia’s population decreased -
05
Labour migration statistics.
European Commission – Impact of the war in Ukraine on labour migration -
06
Third-country nationals’ statistics.
European Commission – Migrant integration in Estonia -
07
Population by citizenship and ethnic nationality.
Statistics Estonia – Population figure -
08
Asylum seekers’ statistics.
OECD – International Migration Outlook 2025: Estonia
Explore perspectives from across Europe
Compare national experiences and examine how migration, integration and demographic change are understood across different European societies.