Lithuania

An academic perspective on immigration, demographic decline and population change, viewed through Lithuania’s national experience.

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Migration and demographic change in Lithuania

In 2025, Lithuania had a population of 2.89 million. This represents a dramatic decline from 3.7 million inhabitants in 1991.

The population decrease can be attributed to several factors. Following the restoration of independence in 1990, many Lithuanians emigrated in search of better employment opportunities. A substantial proportion of them were young, well-educated adults, further accelerating the country’s demographic ageing. At the same time, many ethnic Russians left Lithuania to return to Russia.

An additional contributing factor has been the decline in the total fertility rate. In 2015 the figure stood at 1.71 children; by 2025 it had fallen to 1.22. Long-term projections suggest that the population will continue to decline, reaching 2.26 million by 2050.

Lithuania experienced a significant migration shock following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As of 31 December 2025, the number of foreign nationals residing in Lithuania had reached 217,067, accounting for 7.5% of the country’s total population. The largest groups originated from Ukraine (79,868) and Belarus (50,286).

Labour migration remained substantial. In 2025, 72,496 temporary residence permits (TRPs) were issued for employment purposes, making work the most common basis for the granting of residence permits. The largest groups of foreign workers receiving new permits came from Ukraine (15,695), Belarus (12,053), and Uzbekistan (8,047).

The number of asylum applications in Lithuania declined from 1,051 in 2022 to 381 in 2025. The largest groups of applicants came from Tajikistan (186), Belarus (148), and Russia (24). Of the asylum decisions taken in 2025, 14 applicants were granted refugee status, while 18 were granted subsidiary protection.

2.89m Lithuania’s population in 2025, compared with 3.7 million inhabitants in 1991.
217,067 Foreign nationals residing in Lithuania on 31 December 2025, representing 7.5% of the population.
72,496 Temporary residence permits issued for employment purposes in 2025.
381 Asylum applications submitted in Lithuania in 2025, down from 1,051 in 2022.
National perspective

Interview from Lithuania

This interview explores perceptions of migration, the demographic and societal forces shaping public debate, and recommendations based on Lithuania’s national experience.

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Lithuania

Vainius Bartasevicius

14 August 2024
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