Turkey
Migration, demographic change and the long-term impact of displacement and return, viewed through Turkey’s national experience.
Migration and demographic change in Turkey
In 2025 Turkey had a total population of 86.092 million; ten years earlier it was 78.7 million.
While the fertility rate per woman stood at 2.07 in 2013, this figure has been in continuous decline since 2014, falling to 1.48 in 2024. With the demographic lag, however, the population is projected to rise to 89.9 million by 2035. For 2100, by contrast, a decline to a population of between 55 and 77 million is expected.
The country experienced a major migration shock following the Syrian civil war in 2011, with the number of Syrians under temporary protection rising from 252 in April 2011 to 3.4 million by December 2017.
Earlier shocks included 460,000 Iraqi Kurds in 1991, most of whom returned within months, 20,000 Bosnians in 1992, and 18,000 Kosovars in 1999, alongside smaller communities from Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia settling over the past three decades.
Currently, there are 2.30 million Syrians under temporary protection, as of March 2026. The number of Syrians has declined from its peak of 3.6 million to 2.3 million as of 2025.
The Interior Minister announced on 1 November 2025 that 1.29 million Syrians have returned to their homeland since 2016.
In addition to temporary protection, 1.19 million foreigners hold residence permits, and 6,430 people are under international protection status, bringing the total non-citizen population to 3.50 million, representing about 4.4 per cent of all people currently living in the country.
Interviews from Turkey
These interviews examine migration, demographic change and Turkey’s experience of large-scale displacement, temporary protection, integration and return migration.
Sources and further information
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01
Total population statistics are provided by the Turkish Statistical Institute.
Turkish Statistical Institute population statistics -
02
Fertility-rate statistics are provided by the Turkish Statistical Institute.
Fertility statistics -
03
Population projections are provided by the Turkish Statistical Institute.
Population projections -
04
Current migration, temporary protection, residence permit and international protection statistics are available from Turkey’s Presidency of Migration Management.
Presidency of Migration Management -
05
Information on voluntary Syrian returns is available from the Presidency of Migration Management and Anadolu Agency. Both sources are in Turkish.
Presidency of Migration Management
Anadolu Agency -
06
Statistics on Syrians in Turkey between 2011 and 2017 are available through the Ombudsman Institution of the Republic of Türkiye.
Syrians in Turkey, 2011-2017 -
07
Historical migration context is drawn from Frank Düvell, “Turkey, the Syrian refugee crisis and the changing dynamics of transit migration” (2013).
Turkey, the Syrian refugee crisis and the changing dynamics of transit migration
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